Hello fellow traders!
I hope you are starting your year green.
To briefly introduce myself, I am Michael, and I have been trading for 2 years now. I know it's a really short career compared to some of you who may be reading this post, but I can assure you that I will be one of the most committed traders/learners you have ever seen. I'm not a professional to provide such financial advice yet, but imagine how much progress I would make as a trader in 3 years.
For those reading this in 2025, look at the progress I've accomplished in the last 3 years. You can also do it, so never question yourself, but start your journey and prove yourself!
Let's open the discussion with the Bitcoin graph above.
A couple of days ago, the BTCUSD chart has bounced from its rather strong support just below $40k and is forming a few Doji (cross-looking) candles. I regard this as a sign of an upcoming trend reversal. As Goldman Sachs has forecasted that Bitcoin can pass $100k soon, the past few candles can be the start of the 2022 bullish run.
This is today's entrée - Coinbase. For those who are unfamiliar with this company, Coinbase is an American company that operates a cryptocurrency exchange. If you noticed that the chart is quite similar to the BTCUSD chart, you are on the right track. Crypto-related stocks (COIN, MARA, etc.) trace the BTCUSD's general shape.
If you have well digested the amuse-bouche, then you will instantly get the first reason why I am analyzing Coinbase: the crypto-benefit.
Secondarily, looking at the candlestick itself, the previous day's candle ended with a green hammer, bouncing right at the lower trend line aka support. Furthermore, the volume has almost doubled from the day before and is the greatest since the start of December. Therefore, this is a valid bounce within the range.
Ultimately, let's look at the ranging pattern. Daily candlesticks are forming a "Falling Wedge" pattern, which, most of the time, is a bullish pattern as can be seen from below.
Therefore, we can expect a bullish trend reversal to take place pretty soon.
ForeCast
I believe that Coinbase will continue this momentum and break through the major resistance around $240. Once it reaches the next strong resistance zone around $250, it will then experience a pullback, and launch to the next major resistance area around $264.
However, given the current uncertainty of the market, I suggest swinging for a week or two with the first price target to the upper trend line (approximately $242). If the price happens to break through the upper trend line, then our second price target is $245 and will leave the runners with a stop to secure the profits. However, if it fails, then we will close our position.
Note: I have entered the trade at around $230, but due to the allocation of some time setting up the website, I am writing the analysis a couple of hours late.
Thank you for reading my very first analysis, and if you'd like to learn and get better with me, please subscribe so that we can discuss daily!
Update (January 12)
I have closed 60% of my position for 210% profit at the market open.
I am going to leave the runners for now, but if I see a rejection at the upper trendline, I will close the rest of my position.
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